Since he can still run for office and become president while in prison, is this actually going to do anything to stop him from being president? Obviously it’s not gonna sway anyone who’s gonna vote for him, so is there any actual way this keeps him from office, or at least has some positive effect for us? I wanna join the celebration about this, but I don’t see any way it actually leads to a good outcome, just more deeply convince those for or against him that they’re right, maybe at best a few people on the fence about voting for Biden will be convinced by this. It just feels like theatrics, something to grab people’s attention that will never have any real effect on Trump or his campaign
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its a big, spread out country. your experience isnt their experience. there is a non-zero number of people who will hear this, and it will affect their decision.
but they live in little bubbles of fake info, or at best, zero information regarding the world at large. we need to collectively address him as ‘convicted felon donald trump’ everywhere we can to get the message across, into those bubbles.
I’ve read that according to polls, it might sway about 6% of Trump voters. If that actually happens then yes, it would matter a lot for the outcome of the election. That’s a big if though, so I guess we’ll see.
Sway them which way?
Well, if they were already going to vote for him, the only way to sway them is to not.
they could sway harder for him
If it looks to potentially reduce Republican votes, then Republicans will just compensate by more effort trying to restrict certain demographics and areas from getting their vote in. They never have been supportive of everyone getting a chance to vote, it skews things towards the left. Anyone still remember when Karl Rove lost his mind on live TV because he knew what the numbers should have been had everything gone to plan, and liberals getting more votes was inconceivable to him.
I feel like a few might see a felony conviction as a “straw that broke the camel’s back”
That does not matter to the case. Its justice, so it must be done. What the media and the public make from it might be another thing entirely of course.
Obviously it’s not gonna sway anyone who’s gonna vote for him
That’s not true. You’re likely exposed to a very biased sample, there are a lot of people who simply don’t pay close attention to politics most of the time and may just now be getting the rude awakening that Trump really is a fraud. There are people who really will hold their vote over the candidate being a literal felon, and being in prison would hammer that home even more strongly.
- First timer. Won’t get jail time.
- Most people made their minds up one way or another a long time ago.
- It won’t change many voters’ minds, but on the other hand if the election’s tight as the polls seem to suggest, a few thousand votes here, and a few thousand who don’t vote at all, may actually determine the election result.
Micheal Cohen did the same thing and he did 18 months out of a three year sentence.
- First timer. Won’t get jail time.
There is a small part of me that wants him to win the election and also get jail time.
Just the craziness of a president running the country in prison or under house arrest or something would be something for the history books.
Your question implies the answer is black and white, but its not. Its very complicated and uncertain and we’ve got to take a nuanced view of things.
Obviously it’s not gonna sway anyone who’s gonna vote for him
Its not this black and white. According to a poll: “only 4% of Trump’s supporters said they would withdraw their backing if he’s convicted of a felony, though another 16% said they would reconsider it.” https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/6-months-out-tight-presidential-race-trump-biden-poll/story?id=109909175
This may or may not affect things - depends on how it plays out and where since swing districts usually decide preseidential electons.
is there any actual way this keeps him from office
There’s multiple ways it could influence things beyond just changing voting decisions. It could lead to the campaign spending more money on legal fees for appeal and therefore less on ads, campaign rallies etc. It could also have the opposite effect of firing up Trump’s base and leading to more donations, more votes and potentially political violence.
Its a situation that’s never happened before, and its very complicated and uncertain. Anyone who says they have the answer is trying to sell you the fantasy of certainty in an uncertain world.
Yeah. It definitely matters. Republicans and voters who voted for him in 2016 or 2020 aren’t a monolith. They are on a spectrum.
People change. People move on. People use lots of factors to decide what they think the best strategy is going to be.
There is a kind of recursive/ circular reasoning people use to determine who they support, which is specifically “how likely is this person to be elected?”, their electability. People aren’t willing to support a candidate if they don’t see them as ‘viable’ (which itself is determined in-part by how much support a candidate has).
Being a felon is just, straight-up, a hit to electability. A felon Trump is fundamentally less electable than non-felon Trump.
There is some cohort of republican voters that will never move on from Trump. There is some cohort of republican voters that are barely attached to Trump. Most lay some where in between. I would guess that maybe 10-15% of Republican voters won’t ever vote for anyone but Trump. Maybe the same percentage are barely attached to Trump (again 10-15%). If even 3-5% of Republican voters move away from Trump, heck if even 1% of Republican voters can be moved on this, that has big impacts because of the self-feeding nature of ‘electability’. A 3% drop in polling for Trump can very quickly turn into a 5-10% drop in polling.
This ruling makes it just that much harder for Trump to grow his base.
Nah, this is much worse. It’s like any effective con: Make it absurd at face value so the only people you deal with are already selected to be foolish rubes.
Too bad the US is full of foolish rubes… Hopefully not over half, but I’m not holding my breath.
That is a grim but valid point.
I still think it’s a spectrum and I put it at a 2-8% drop in polling by June, and a 6-12 point drop by July.
Keep in mind that’s not a probability of victory. Biden also working to lower his polling numbers.
It takes away time from campaigning and money raising. Sadly, the goal is not related to him. No one is paying attention to real issues and demanding accountability from Congress while all this is happening. This is the only factor that matters to the criminal oligarchy. Their goal is to prevent any forms of reasonable legislation that might restrict the loopholes they use to loot and pillage the rest of us.
no. if he gets prison time, he will lose his right to vote during the period of incarceration, but that will be restored once he’s released. that’s if he gets locked up
if he is sentenced to time, and actually probably even if he isn’t, they’re going to do an immediate appeal, and most likely he will be out on bail during the appeal process. again, that’s only if they were planning on locking him up in the first place
but no, there are only three qualifications for being president:
- Be a natural-born citizen of the United States.
- Be at least 35 years old.
- Have been a resident of the United States for 14 years.
If he goes to prison and then gets elected president, how does it work? Will he be pronounced incapable of performing the office, do the job from prison, or get released?
Oh come on, you’ve watched this farce for how long and still ask that question? He’ll be released and immediately pardon himself for anything and everything he can, and literally go to war against the states that still want to hold him accountable.
most likely just doing the job from prison
That wouldn’t be necessary. Presidents have the power to pardon and nothing says it cannot be used on the self.
Incorrect, the President cannot pardon a state charge.
Ah, good call, I forgot the context. Does this apply if he escalates to supreme court and they grant certiorari?
this state charge can’t escalate to the supreme court.
There is a lot of nuance to that. If Trump appeals on constitutional grounds, the Supreme Court can choose to hear it. State cases can be appealed to the SC if their interpretation of federal law or the constitution are in dispute. They normally just outright deny hearing most cases decided by state courts. A good chunk of the supreme court is likely to grant whatever the hell he wants though, so I’m not so certain anything that boils down to interpretation is safe.
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Not having been determined via impeachment proceedings to be barred from office.
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Having served less than two terms, however you can serve just under 10 years if you were raised to president more than half way through the term.
So you’re saying Congress could have fixed this years ago.
RIP Bill Clinton
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It doesn’t matter to anybody who has already made up their mind to vote/not vote for him.
It matters that justice is done and that the system holds him accountable.
- Most Americans already knew he was a criminal and either strongly opposed him or strongly supported him, in part on that basis. There are a lot of other people who usually or often vote Republican, but also just don’t always vote. Those people aren’t going to be enthusiastic about showing up to vote for a felon. I think we’re looking at extremely low turnout among non-MAGA Republicans. Optimistically, this scenario can also lead to a blue wave as those same people skip down-ballot races as well.
- First-time offenders get lighter sentences. He’s going to be convicted in multiple upcoming trials, and in all of them he’s now going to enter the sentencing phase as a felon. We can look forward to extended prison sentences in Georgia and the federal cases.
No, no it doesn’t matter at all. I wish I was wrong, but I’m not. Rich, white, racist, bigoted, POS is a God in the eyes of those who would vote for him. He literally could murdered 20,000,000 people live on national TV and still his base would worship his diaper covered ass. Possibly more if the 20M were trans or POC.
Literally 300,000 dead US citizens from 45’s policies regarding COVID-19 pandemic.
Sadly, no.
Depends on what you mean by matter. The point of the criminal justice system is, theoretically, to determine who breaks the law, and to punish people who break the law. In that sense it matters because Trump was found guilty in a fair trial by a jury of his peers.
If what you mean is that it will change the politics of America, certainly. Trump is now running with the specter of a conviction hanging over him. Even assuming appeals and pardons, that fundamentally changes the nature of the election. It raises real and serious questions about how he could serve if under house arrest, parole, or in prison. It forces us to reckon with the balance of powers in this country - can a person dodge justice because they attain high office, or do we hold them accountable no matter what?
If what you mean is in reality, no it probably won’t do shit.
